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467 ABNT20 KNHC 021739 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic: Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of the wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 02 Oct 2022 22:02:16 GMT
371 ABPZ20 KNHC 021743 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Orlene, located close to southwestern Mexico. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. South of southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally west-northwest during the next couple of days, but could turn northwestward after midweek. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown
...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 the center of Orlene was located near 20.4, -106.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 ...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 106.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias this evening and tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm warning area through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday: * Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches. * Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. * Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Although the satellite presentation of Orlene is not as impressive as it was overnight, the center is still embedded within an area of cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. The eye is also not as defined in conventional satellite imagery as earlier today, but an Air Force Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that made two passes through the center earlier this afternoon reported a closed 22 n-mi-wide eye on its final pass. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 96 kt, and SFMR winds of 92 kt. Since the plane only made a couple passes through the eastern eyewall, the intensity is set at 100 kt, owing to some undersampling. It has been difficult to determine if today's weakening was caused by an eyewall replacement cycle, the increase in southwesterly shear, or a combination of both. Regardless, southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next 12 to 24 hours, which is expected to cause an additional reduction in wind speed, plus the entrainment of some drier mid-level air to the west of Orlene. Orlene still is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong hurricane tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico as a hurricane by on Monday. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and the low-level center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 48-60 hours. Satellite imagery and fixes from the aircraft show that Orlene is still moving northward or 005/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. Orlene should bend north-northeastward tonight as it is steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in much better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast was only nudged slightly westward to be closer to the various consensus aids. The updated track and wind radii forecast has necessitated the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland Mexico to the northwest of the Hurricane Warning area. No other changes were made to the existing wind warnings. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. 3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.4N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 022035
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 76 12(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 37 19(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
MAZATLAN 34 5 70(75) 12(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
MAZATLAN 50 X 16(16) 18(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
MAZATLAN 64 X 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN BLAS 34 15 26(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAN BLAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
P VALLARTA 34 7 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 20:35:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 21:22:36 GMT