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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

467 
ABNT20 KNHC 021739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.  
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward 
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in 
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east 
of the Windward Islands.  Some gradual development of the wave is 
possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward 
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern 
Caribbean Sea by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 02 Oct 2022 22:02:16 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

371 
ABPZ20 KNHC 021743
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Orlene, located close to southwestern Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show 
signs of organization. Additional development of this system is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. 
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development 
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during 
the next several days.  The low is forecast to move generally 
west-northwest during the next couple of days, but could turn 
northwestward after midweek. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

Summary for Hurricane Orlene (EP1/EP162022)

...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2
 the center of Orlene was located near 20.4, -106.9
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 972 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory Number 17

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 022034
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya.
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today or tonight.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las 
Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within 
the warning area on Monday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches southwestern Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias this
evening and tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning
within the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early Monday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.
 
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:
 
* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.
 
These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022035
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
Although the satellite presentation of Orlene is not as impressive 
as it was overnight, the center is still embedded within an area of 
cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius.  The eye is 
also not as defined in conventional satellite imagery as earlier 
today, but an Air Force Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that 
made two passes through the center earlier this afternoon reported 
a closed 22 n-mi-wide eye on its final pass. The aircraft measured 
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 96 kt, and SFMR winds of 92 kt.  
Since the plane only made a couple passes through the eastern 
eyewall, the intensity is set at 100 kt, owing to some 
undersampling.
 
It has been difficult to determine if today's weakening was caused 
by an eyewall replacement cycle, the increase in southwesterly 
shear, or a combination of both.  Regardless, southwesterly 
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next 12 to 
24 hours, which is expected to cause an additional reduction in 
wind speed, plus the entrainment of some drier mid-level air to the 
west of Orlene.  Orlene still is forecast to pass near or over the 
Islas Marias as a strong hurricane tonight, and reach the coast of 
mainland Mexico as a hurricane by on Monday. After landfall, rapid 
weakening is expected, and the low-level center should dissipate 
over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 48-60 hours.
 
Satellite imagery and fixes from the aircraft show that Orlene is
still moving northward or 005/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy 
is unchanged from before.  Orlene should bend north-northeastward 
tonight as it is steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and 
a broad trough over northwestern Mexico.   The track guidance is in 
much better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast was only 
nudged slightly westward to be closer to the various consensus 
aids.

The updated track and wind radii forecast has necessitated the 
issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland 
Mexico to the northwest of the Hurricane Warning area.  No other 
changes were made to the existing wind warnings. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central 
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday 
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Preparations 
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in 
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the 
warning area in regions of onshore winds.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, 
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of 
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 20.4N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 022035
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 76  12(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLAS MARIAS   64 37  19(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
MAZATLAN       34  5  70(75)  12(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
MAZATLAN       50  X  16(16)  18(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
MAZATLAN       64  X   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34 15  26(41)   3(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN BLAS       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
SAN BLAS       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
P VALLARTA     34  7   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Orlene Graphics

Hurricane Orlene 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 20:35:34 GMT

Hurricane Orlene 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 21:22:36 GMT