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000 ABNT20 KNHC 300516 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward to west-northwestward over the next few days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:31 GMT
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 300517 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, some slow development is possible over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Brown
...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.1, -112.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 112.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane within a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 042 WTPZ23 KNHC 300836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to become better organized with a curved band of convection over the western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has been set at 50 kt. Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear, it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in steady to rapid weakening. Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 300836
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 43 16(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
15N 115W 50 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
15N 115W 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 88(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) 68(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) 43(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 32(64) 1(65) X(65)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 48(59) 8(67)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 08:38:46 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:20 GMT