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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300516
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected 
to move westward to west-northwestward over the next few days and 
interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low 
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some 
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:31 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300517
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south of the southern  
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the 
coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days.  Thereafter, some slow 
development is possible over the weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC 
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)

...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30
 the center of Marie was located near 14.1, -112.5
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300836
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020
 
...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Marie is 
expected to become a hurricane by tonight.  The storm is forecast 
to become a major hurricane within a couple of days. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020  

042 
WTPZ23 KNHC 300836
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300837
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020
 
Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to 
become better organized with a curved band of convection over the 
western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature.  An 
ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in 
pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's 
tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small.  Subjective 
satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer 
data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the 
continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity
has been set at 50 kt. 

Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the 
northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear, 
it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the 
shear is decreasing as anticipated.  Marie is forecast to remain 
over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next 
couple of days.  These very conducive conditions favor 
strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to 
rapid intensification over the next 48 hours.  The official 
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP 
corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid 
strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours.  The updated NHC wind 
speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly 
higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory.  After 72 
hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in 
steady to rapid weakening. 
 
Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than 
before.  There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy 
as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during 
the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer 
ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted 
when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The latest runs of 
the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track 
during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been 
adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar 
to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell
originating from the Southern Hemisphere.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 300836
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020               
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34 43  16(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
15N 115W       50 12  10(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
15N 115W       64  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 120W       34  X   3( 3)  88(91)   2(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)  68(68)   6(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)  43(43)   6(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  32(64)   1(65)   X(65)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)   X(31)   X(31)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   4(25)   1(26)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  48(59)   8(67)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   6(33)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Marie Graphics

Tropical Storm Marie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 08:38:46 GMT

Tropical Storm Marie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:20 GMT