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000 ABNT20 KNHC 110125 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located inland over eastern New Jersey.. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven
...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 40.1, -74.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 150 WTNT21 KNHC 102045 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 160SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 102046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. While isolated minor flooding is possible, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 39.5N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 102243 CCA
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
CORRECTED PROBABILITIES IN TABLE
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CONCORD NH 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WORCESTER MA 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 20 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
BOSTON MA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 68 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
BRIDGEPORT CT 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
HARTFORD CT 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
NEW LONDON CT 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ALBANY NY 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
POUGHKEEPSIE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ISLIP NY 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLIP NY 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
NEWARK NJ 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
PHILADELPHIA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 23:41:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 22:41:46 GMT
Issued at 516 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Issued at 522 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102326 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the development of a tropical depression through early next week while the system moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 10 the center of Cristina was located near 19.8, -115.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102056 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Corrected issuance time zone to HST. ...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kodama
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102041 RRA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 605 WTPZ45 KNHC 102044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a blend of the available estimates. The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA guidance. It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a little longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 102045
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 120W 34 1 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 21:32:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 21:32:14 GMT