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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110125
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fay, located inland over eastern New Jersey.. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five 
days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories 
on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and 
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)

...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY...
 As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10
 the center of Fay was located near 40.1, -74.3
 with movement N at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102342
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
JERSEY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including Long Island and Long Island Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude
74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this
evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western
New England tonight and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after
Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center.  NOAA
buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and
a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from
northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New
Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain
could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on
small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but
widespread river flooding is not expected.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.
 
TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening
across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and
southern New England.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020  

150 
WTNT21 KNHC 102045
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  74.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  74.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N  74.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.7N  73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.7N  72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.6N  69.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  74.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 102046
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the 
central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep 
convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The 
deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and 
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with 
the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the 
center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix 
from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure 
estimate of 998 mb.
 
Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to 
interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to 
persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay 
is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those 
winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by 
that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone 
and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.
 
The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast 
reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally 
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a 
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching 
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track 
forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the 
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to 
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania
northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New
England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas
with poor drainage.  While isolated minor flooding is possible,
widespread river flooding is not expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 39.5N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 41.7N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 45.7N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 49.6N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 102243 CCA
PWSAT1
                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6...CORRECTED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                            

CORRECTED PROBABILITIES IN TABLE

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CONCORD NH     34  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 20   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
BOSTON MA      34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 68   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 54   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ALBANY NY      34 11   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34 32   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
POUGHKEEPSIE   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ISLIP NY       34 81   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
ISLIP NY       50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 65   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 60   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
NEWARK NJ      50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

Tropical Storm Fay 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 23:41:58 GMT

Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 22:41:46 GMT

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at  516 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  522 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102326
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is 
located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be generally favorable for the development of a 
tropical depression through early next week while the system moves 
quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER...
 As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 10
 the center of Cristina was located near 19.8, -115.5
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 17

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 102056 CCA
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  17...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Corrected issuance time zone to HST. 
 
...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west is forecast to occur over the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 102041 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  55SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020  

605 
WTPZ45 KNHC 102044
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's 
appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly  
limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is 
clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping 
trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the 
cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective 
intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast 
package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a 
blend of the available estimates.

The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale 
guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern 
U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge 
strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The 
objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast 
has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is 
close to the HCCA guidance.

It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has 
passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids 
indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea 
surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the 
forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 
hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a 
little longer.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 102045
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI          
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 120W       34  1  58(59)   3(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
20N 120W       50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 120W       64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KODAMA

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 21:32:14 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 21:32:14 GMT